The creation of the Belarusian Guard?


Karpenkov’s desire to stand out and obey no one.

Обложка статьи: создание Белгвардии. На фоне внутренних войск Карпенков и Курбаков

Not so long ago, articles about personnel changes in the structure of Lukashenka’s power ministers started to appear in the mass media on the part of the Belarusian opposition. The appointment of the current Commander of the Internal Troops of the Republic of Belarus – Minister of Internal Affairs of the Republic of Belarus – in spring 2024 was actively discussed.

In our opinion, this is absolutely untrue. The current Minister Ivan Kubrakov fully satisfies the dictator. The bold statement about the replacement of the current Minister of Internal Affairs of the Republic of Belarus with Nikolai Karpenkou this spring is only an assumption.

The creation of the Belarusian Guard?

At the moment, it is more likely that the internal troops of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of the Republic of Belarus will be separated into a separate structure similar to the Rosgvardia in Russia. It should be reminded that the Rosgvardiya of the Russian Federation reports to Putin alone. It is quite well armed, including heavy weapons. The unspoken task of the Rosguard is to protect Putin personally. That is why it is run by Viktor Zolotov, a 70-year-old associate of the Russian president.

In the Office of the Commander of Internal Troops of the Ministry of Internal Affairs, there are active rumors about the separation of the troops into just such a structure. Officers like such changes, the creation of the Belarusian Guard would raise their status and material wealth. And the ambitious Karpenkov is making incredible efforts for this.

In our opinion, it is unlikely that Karpenkov will be entrusted with the management of such an independent military resource. At the moment it is reinforced by fighters of the Russian PMC “Wagner”. For Lukashenko Karpenkov is a useful sheepdog. But to entrust him with the management of troops independent of anyone, Lukashenko is probably afraid.

The point is this. On the scale of Belarus, internal troops may well ensure a forceful seizure of power. The dictator’s analysts, of course, told him about it. That’s why we consider any such changes unlikely this year. Although the very idea of creating a kind of troops in RB similar to the Russian Rosgvardia seems interesting to the dictator. But not for and not for the sake of Karpenkov for sure…..

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